Comments on: Finding Buying Opportunities: An Analysis of My Apple Trades http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/ 20s Money: The #1 Website On The Internet For 20-Somethings And Their Money Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:51:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: Finding Buying Opportunities #2: Analyzing My Altria / Philip Morris Moves : 20s Money http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-174 Finding Buying Opportunities #2: Analyzing My Altria / Philip Morris Moves : 20s Money Thu, 12 Jun 2008 13:34:23 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-174 [...] received such a great response regarding my previous post on analyzing my Apple (AAPL) trades, that I decided to write a similar post. This post, however, is on a much differently behaving [...] […] received such a great response regarding my previous post on analyzing my Apple (AAPL) trades, that I decided to write a similar post. This post, however, is on a much differently behaving […]

]]> By: Avoid The Whack-A-Mole Approach To Investing http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-58 Avoid The Whack-A-Mole Approach To Investing Tue, 13 May 2008 11:20:25 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-58 [...] with strong reasons, you are killing your return with the trading costs incurred. In my post analyzing my Apple trades, you will see a clear example of the ill effects of over [...] […] with strong reasons, you are killing your return with the trading costs incurred. In my post analyzing my Apple trades, you will see a clear example of the ill effects of over […]

]]> By: Mark http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-55 Mark Mon, 12 May 2008 22:31:19 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-55 Oops, I see you're already following Chesapeake. OK, another one then. Dawson Geophysics (DWSN), also a NG play. Had a great buying opportunity just a few days ago but is already back to a point where I won't be buying. Also an extremely well-run little company. And it regularly provides great buying opportunities to the patient. I buy at a PE of 15 and sell at PE 20. (More or less) I've made more money trading this one than with Apple. Happy hunting. Oops, I see you’re already following Chesapeake.

OK, another one then. Dawson Geophysics (DWSN), also a NG play. Had a great buying opportunity just a few days ago but is already back to a point where I won’t be buying. Also an extremely well-run little company. And it regularly provides great buying opportunities to the patient. I buy at a PE of 15 and sell at PE 20. (More or less) I’ve made more money trading this one than with Apple.

Happy hunting.

]]> By: Mark http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-54 Mark Mon, 12 May 2008 22:19:22 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-54 Apple is by far my favourite company. And it happens to be a good stock to follow. I have a few more good ones but I'm hesitant to list them. I'm a beginning investor and not an analyst or expert. So I'll name just one: Chesapeake (CHK). Bought a large stake at $32 and now sits at $55 and still has plenty of room to go up IMO. Extremely well-run company, sitting on a lot of gas-reserves that are not fully priced into the stock. Definitely one of my favourites. But do your own due diligence before buying :) Apple is by far my favourite company. And it happens to be a good stock to follow.

I have a few more good ones but I’m hesitant to list them. I’m a beginning investor and not an analyst or expert. So I’ll name just one: Chesapeake (CHK). Bought a large stake at $32 and now sits at $55 and still has plenty of room to go up IMO. Extremely well-run company, sitting on a lot of gas-reserves that are not fully priced into the stock. Definitely one of my favourites.

But do your own due diligence before buying :)

]]> By: kevin duffey http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-51 kevin duffey Mon, 12 May 2008 20:10:54 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-51 25% market share for Macs would make $200 look extremely cheap. I agree with your point on focusing on Apple's value. What other stocks are you dialed into besides Apple? 25% market share for Macs would make $200 look extremely cheap. I agree with your point on focusing on Apple’s value.

What other stocks are you dialed into besides Apple?

]]> By: Mark http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-49 Mark Mon, 12 May 2008 19:51:54 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-49 Kevin, It definitely helped getting in earlier than you did. But that's not all to it. During that timeframe I could have bought it for a lot more. If you look back you'll see that (for once) I managed to be patient with most of my buys. Would I sell when it goes over $200? Well, I didn't last time. The next time around there will be even less reason to do so. $250, maybe, not so sure. I'm willing to allow Apple to prove it can get 25% market-share for their Mac, in which case it's hard to imagine what the upper-limit of the stock is. They may get bigger than Microsoft in terms of market-cap (if AAPL goes to $300). Instead I think it's more fruitful to focus on Apple's value. If things go well, this value will continue to go up. In the meantime I believe there will be that incredible buying opportunity every once in a while. Two, maybe three times a year. Just be patient and choose your moment. Lastly: my broker is Interactive Brokers. Kevin,

It definitely helped getting in earlier than you did. But that’s not all to it. During that timeframe I could have bought it for a lot more. If you look back you’ll see that (for once) I managed to be patient with most of my buys.

Would I sell when it goes over $200? Well, I didn’t last time. The next time around there will be even less reason to do so. $250, maybe, not so sure. I’m willing to allow Apple to prove it can get 25% market-share for their Mac, in which case it’s hard to imagine what the upper-limit of the stock is. They may get bigger than Microsoft in terms of market-cap (if AAPL goes to $300).

Instead I think it’s more fruitful to focus on Apple’s value. If things go well, this value will continue to go up. In the meantime I believe there will be that incredible buying opportunity every once in a while. Two, maybe three times a year. Just be patient and choose your moment.

Lastly: my broker is Interactive Brokers.

]]> By: NBA Coaches, Real Estate, and Stocks: Life Is All About The Entry Point http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-40 NBA Coaches, Real Estate, and Stocks: Life Is All About The Entry Point Mon, 12 May 2008 11:03:30 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-40 [...] If they liked the stock at $190 because of the fundamentals, they should have LOVED the stock at $120 for the same fundamentals. Those investors who were undeterred in Apple’s long term potential were buying as much stock as they could at those low price levels.  The stock is rewarded the consistent investors, and is now trading at over $180. I recently wrote a detailed self analysis on my Apple trades. [...] […] If they liked the stock at $190 because of the fundamentals, they should have LOVED the stock at $120 for the same fundamentals. Those investors who were undeterred in Apple’s long term potential were buying as much stock as they could at those low price levels.  The stock is rewarded the consistent investors, and is now trading at over $180. I recently wrote a detailed self analysis on my Apple trades. […]

]]> By: Tom http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-39 Tom Sat, 10 May 2008 20:21:16 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-39 I have broken all the rules and traded Apple options and leaps, stock and puts for a year. Five hours a day. In Feb the account was down to 8K. Today it is at 30+. In retrospect I have made too many trades to chase the bouncing ball. This week was typical not in the up/down but how it looks to me generally: Monday I was up 2,904, Tuesday I was up 1,208, Wednesday I was off 3,933 Thursday I was up 818. Friday I was down 4,700. Part of the problem that adds to the volatility in my account is my use of stops. I was killed by the 3 big downers in AAPL (and the broader market) in January that took my previous 2007 stake down from +72K to 8K. Each of these nosedives happened literally in 30 minutes away from the screen, so I have been over stopping from fear. I have often times taken profits from front of month calls and bought leaps, only to sell one or two 5 days later to get onto what I saw as a pregnant up move. I started this play when I lost my software firm and got very broke. This was the only thing I felt I could do to build capital in the short time frame- learn day trading and focus only on AAPL because of the unique opportunity to see their strategy and ability to execute- when much of the world couldn't quite see it for what it was/is. I am 76 and still well but at times a bit stressed. I have broken all the rules and traded Apple options and leaps, stock and puts for a year. Five hours a day.
In Feb the account was down to 8K. Today it is at 30+. In retrospect I have made too many trades to chase the bouncing ball.
This week was typical not in the up/down but how it looks to me generally:
Monday I was up 2,904, Tuesday I was up 1,208, Wednesday I was off 3,933 Thursday I was up 818. Friday I was down 4,700.
Part of the problem that adds to the volatility in my account is my use of stops. I was killed by the 3 big downers in AAPL (and the broader market) in January that took my previous 2007 stake down from +72K to 8K. Each of these nosedives happened literally in 30 minutes away from the screen, so I have been over stopping from fear. I have often times taken profits from front of month calls and bought leaps, only to sell one or two 5 days later to get onto what I saw as a pregnant up move.

I started this play when I lost my software firm and got very broke. This was the only thing I felt I could do to build capital in the short time frame- learn day trading and focus only on AAPL because of the unique opportunity to see their strategy and ability to execute- when much of the world couldn’t quite see it for what it was/is.
I am 76 and still well but at times a bit stressed.

]]> By: Kris http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-33 Kris Thu, 08 May 2008 03:16:08 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-33 You would do better to invest long term in a few well managed and forward thinking companies that are poised for growth, like Apple. And don't run scared when the manipulators on Wall Street undercut the stock. I started buying Apple in '97 and stupidly sold off 40% back in '05 when it wasn't doing much. Shortly after, it doubled, split then tripled. Despite the dip early this year I held on and the subsequent rebound has me with nearly a half million (with about $32,00 invested). But I still think about how much more it would be had I not sold those earlier shares. You would do better to invest long term in a few well managed and forward thinking companies that are poised for growth, like Apple. And don’t run scared when the manipulators on Wall Street undercut the stock.
I started buying Apple in ‘97 and stupidly sold off 40% back in ‘05 when it wasn’t doing much. Shortly after, it doubled, split then tripled. Despite the dip early this year I held on and the subsequent rebound has me with nearly a half million (with about $32,00 invested). But I still think about how much more it would be had I not sold those earlier shares.

]]> By: kevin duffey http://20smoney.com/2008/05/06/finding-buying-opportunities-an-analysis-of-my-apple-trades/#comment-30 kevin duffey Wed, 07 May 2008 15:37:12 +0000 http://20smoney.com/?p=28#comment-30 It is simply my guess that Apple will continue to climb until the 3G release, this may or may not happen. As Apple continues to trend higher, I like to take some profits. I don't sell my entire position. Apple is a stock that I think overreacts both to the upside and to the downside. I differentiate it from other long term investments because of these overreactions. The long term fundamentals are in place, and maybe it makes more sense to buy and simply hold; however, I like to attempt to take advantage of overreactions. Thoughts? It is simply my guess that Apple will continue to climb until the 3G release, this may or may not happen. As Apple continues to trend higher, I like to take some profits. I don’t sell my entire position. Apple is a stock that I think overreacts both to the upside and to the downside. I differentiate it from other long term investments because of these overreactions. The long term fundamentals are in place, and maybe it makes more sense to buy and simply hold; however, I like to attempt to take advantage of overreactions. Thoughts?

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