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The Employment Picture

7 August 2009 No Comment

Today, we received the best employment report in a months, with the job losses for the month of July only totaling 247,000.  Interestingly, while receiving this “good” news which rallied the markets even higher, I have heard multiple reports from close friends just in the last few days over more and more layoffs.

One story came from a regional bank which continued to lay off individuals despite the green shoots springing up all over the place.  A second story came from another financial / investment firm that works in real estate.  A third story came from a staffing and recruitng company that has had its revenues decimated for a lack of companies hiring.

It seems the local scene that I can see with my own eyes and ears is as bad as ever.  Yet, on the macro / national scene, it sounds like our economy is booming.  Where is the reality?  Probably somewhere in the middle.  The question remains: what is the stock market pricing in?  I believe it is pricing in a V shaped, robust recovery… one that won’t happen.

Are we stabilizing?  Yes, and it’s a good thing for the economy.  But will we really be adding jobs by the hundreds of thousands in just a few short months?  I’m not sure, but I doubt it.  Next question: If we don’t add jobs soon and fast, what will the stock market do?

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