The Employment Picture
Today, we received the best employment report in a months, with the job losses for the month of July only totaling 247,000. Interestingly, while receiving this “good” news which rallied the markets even higher, I have heard multiple reports from close friends just in the last few days over more and more layoffs.
One story came from a regional bank which continued to lay off individuals despite the green shoots springing up all over the place. A second story came from another financial / investment firm that works in real estate. A third story came from a staffing and recruitng company that has had its revenues decimated for a lack of companies hiring.
It seems the local scene that I can see with my own eyes and ears is as bad as ever. Yet, on the macro / national scene, it sounds like our economy is booming. Where is the reality? Probably somewhere in the middle. The question remains: what is the stock market pricing in? I believe it is pricing in a V shaped, robust recovery… one that won’t happen.
Are we stabilizing? Yes, and it’s a good thing for the economy. But will we really be adding jobs by the hundreds of thousands in just a few short months? I’m not sure, but I doubt it. Next question: If we don’t add jobs soon and fast, what will the stock market do?