Home » Economy, Investing, Market Analysis

Friday Rant: Patience, Patience, Patience…

4 September 2009 No Comment

The stock market wants to reverse, but it is slow to do so.  Lesson learned:  the stock market is never as predictable as we think or I think.

Despite the fact that buy the dips has worked marvelously for the last few months, I refuse to buy into this market.  Because of this, I’ve missed a heck of a run, but I’m sticking to my strategy.

I have a few stocks that I have my eyes on with specific target entry points.  I’m doing my best to exercise patience and wait for these established entry points.  If not, whats the point in identifying such entry points?

In the meantime, gold is killing it and is making another assault at the $1,000 level.  Does anyone really think that gold won’t eventually break through this key level with some serious convinction?  I’m moving up my buy targets on ETFs such as GDX.  Interestingly, I just sold off my GLD and SLV positions since I’m nervous about potential coming regulation on commodity based ETFs.  For now, I’ll focus on the miners.

It’s fascinating how much emotional control is required to stick to a specific investing strategy.  Many of my shorts are in the red due to the recent run (see SPG, COF, WYNN, WSM, VNO, M), but I’m holding tight.  I purposely have enough cash in my account to prevent getting chased out of these short positions.

The only thing that makes me nervous is the government printing press that is likely to be revved up even more in the future.  Because of this, I will be anxious to exit these shorts upon any significant pullback, then be patient with loading up on the positions that I have my eye on.

The Economy

Today, we see our government unemployment figure hit 9.7%.  I say government figure, because the real unemployment is much higher.

Guys, I can’t say this enough, the American economy is not going to go back to what it was a few years ago.  It’s impossible.  The only way to do this is to destroy our currency, and if that happens, we’re even more screwed.  Consumption WILL NOT bounce back to levels in recent years, nor should we want it to.

Expect more “cash for X” programs, including more incentives to buy homes and cars and everything else, in the future.  These politicians will do whatever they can to try and prop up this failing economy.

What should you do?  Hoard cash, invest in yourself and in cash flowing opportunities, and be patient with this stock market!  I assure you better opportunities will present themselves.

Comments are closed.