What are we using to gauge a potential recovery?  Are we basing it on fundamentals or on a hot stock market?  Despite the semi-positive economic indicators, there are still ugly indicators out there as well, namely job cuts.

Today, Eli Lilly announced a round of job cuts.  5,500 people or about 14% of its staff are being cut in an effort to lower costs.  While the job cuts have clearly slowed since early in 2009, they are still happening and the U.S. economy is still bleeding a few hundred thousand jobs a month.

The question remains: Can we really recover without a substantial change in the employment picture?

Even some White House officials are warning us to get ready for a prolonged period with high unemployment.  If unemployment hovers over 9% throughout 2010, how will that impact the stock market?  I think when companies start to see a lack of rebounding in consumption impacting their earnings in 2010, many stocks will be re-evaluated.