GDP Numbers Continue To Be Nonsense
22 December 2009
14 views
No Comment
It almost makes you wonder whether the “government” is doing this on purpose… reporting large GDP numbers then revising them lower months later when nobody is paying as much attention. In the recent quarter, GDP was originally at 3.5%. It was then revised to 2.7%. Today, they revised it even lower to 2.2%. What in the heck is going on?
2.2% is very different than 3.5% and represents a very, very large miss. I’m not sure how they are able to get it so wrong.
I expect the exact same scenario to play out for 4th quarter GDP numbers that will be released in the near future. The market will rally on a 4-4.5% GDP growth number, then it will be revised lower towards 3%.
You’re probably better off ignoring GDP reports.
I have to question why they bother revising these numbers at all. Is it to create an illusion of accuracy? I don't doubt as the number falls it gains closer alignment to reality, but I have a hard time believing it is even relatively close to actual GDP…
All .gov released numbers seem to be products of stats manipulation game on a grand scale.
It's one thing to be a little off, or even be off once or twice, but really, being 40% off? What's the point of producing numbers that are so ridiculously wrong? They're obviously doing something wrong wrong or their models are just bad. I expect more, this is just sad.
Leave your response!