January 2010

Welcome MaxBlogger Visitors

Administrative

It looks like I’m getting a bunch of new visitors from the article I wrote for MaxBlogger. I wish to point you folks to the following resources that might interest you:

  1. Each month I do a monthly update for the blog, both in terms of traffic and income (income is a huge goal of mine).  You can view my latest update from December here.  Also, my January numbers are up about 50% from December and the update will be out this week.  Subscribe to my RSS so you don’t miss it.
  2. Also, check out my Financial Plan writing contest.  By participating, you can get a free backlink to your blog in your submission (assuming it’s a decent quality – I will only post quality submissions).  Integrating your quest for online income into your financial plan is what I’d love to hear about.  Plus, you might win some money!

Thanks and enjoy!

Popularity: 4% [?]

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The 10/10 Rule in 2010

Economy Politics

The election season in 2010 has basically begun with the State of the Union address this week.  Ignore the rhetoric and the speeches; there are really only two metrics that will determine the success of the incumbent party (Democrats) come November.  They are:

  1. Whether or not unemployment drops below 10%
  2. Whether or not the Dow can stay above 10,000

Simply put, the Democrats know they need to put a dent in unemployment and they need to keep the stock market above 10,000.  The latter may have seemed easier just last week – the Dow has dropped some 600+ points since then, and is now closer to the 10k mark.

The interesting thing is that I’m most worried that the Democrats will do whatever it takes to satisfy the 10/10 rule in their favor.  The easiest way to accomplish, maybe the only way, in such a weak real economy, is to destroy the dollar.  Print enough money, we can pay for everyone to work (if we can’t find something for them to do, simply have them dig holes and fill them in again!) and we can get the Dow maybe even up to 20,000.

The problem is that there is a non-political metric that measures the validity of the 10/10 rule.  That metric is the price of gold.  Sure, politicians might be able to fix unemployment and the stock market, but if gold doubles, triples, or more, then the success of beating the 10/10 rule may likely be nullified.  Interesting, no?

So, with that said, we can actually add a third “10″.  Here is the winning formula for any party:

  1. Drop unemployment below 10% – real unemployment as we used to measure it (yeah right)
  2. Keep the Dow over 10,000
  3. Keep gold under $1,000 per oz.

If you can manage to do all three, you will be able to get the economy on the right path.  The problem is that I’m not sure that is possible.  You have massive forces that are working to pull the Dow lower and push unemployment higher: deleveraging, weak consumption, toxic assets, crumbling housing market, etc.  In an effort to combat these forces, we’re destroying the dollar and pushing gold higher.  So, like I said, accomplishing the 10/10 with the third 10 (gold) is easier said than done.

As such, I think that Republicans will probably do well in 2010 elections.  I just hope we’re getting Republicans more like Ron Paul, not Republicans like John McCain and Lindsey Graham.

Popularity: 4% [?]

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Telling Day In The Market

Market Analysis Trading

GDP results came in at 5.7% (this will be revised lower when nobody is paying attention just like last quarter), yet the market still couldn’t hang on to its 100+ gain (Dow).

The Dow closed down 53 points and ended the week at 10,067.  The S&P closed down 10 points to 1073.  The Nasdaq closed down 32 points to 2147.

Today saw a huge drop in one of the market leaders of 2009, Apple Inc. (AAPL).  This is a perfect example of how a stock can drop even when the company is clicking and hitting on all cylinders.  Remember, stocks are emotional vehicles.  Earlier this week, Apple reported a blow out quarter with massive growth in their earnings.  The company continues to dominate in many of its product divisions.  Then, we saw Apple debut its iPad (terrible name).  While many are quick to criticize the iPad, it is definitely an awesome product.  The $499 starting price was also a huge winner.  No matter, the stock has had its run it looks like.

Apple (AAPL) Chart

Apple (AAPL) closed the day at $192.

I heard Jim Cramer tell his viewers on Mad Money last night “I don’t like this market” – his view is that people are looking for a reason to sell.  I actually agree with him, but I do like this market.  For me, it’s starting to make more sense, and I love being able to trade the short side and actually make money.

Shorts I’m holding over the weekend: SPG, BC, M, COF and a few others that I’ve been holding for months

I’m also eyeing Philip Morris Int’l (PM) as it drops.  Hoping it drops more so I can pick up some shares in the low 40’s.  Patience is key though.  We’ve had a giant move up, and just started correcting.

Popularity: 4% [?]

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Announcing The 20smoney.com Writing Contest! Win $250!

Contest

I’ve been wanting to do a give-away / contest, and I decided to do it in the form of a writing contest.  You can enter the contest by writing a short piece as described below.

Writing Guidelines

  • Answer the question: What is your financial plan for the next 10 years?
  • Be sure to to hit on things such as income, job security, budgeting, expense management, real estate, investing, retirement planning, etc. – the more detailed within specific areas the better!
  • Be sure to discuss how the economy might affect your plan – what if we fall into a double dip recession?  Or worse, a depression?  Or inflation?  What if you lose your job? What are you doing to prepare for any economic scenario?
  • Be specific about certain financial goals you might have
  • Include your age and your age-specific concerns & goals
  • A minimum of 500 words is required – again, more detail improves your chances of winning the contest!
  • Send your contest submission to kevin (at) 20smoney (dot) com with “Writing Contest” in the subject line

Contest Rules

  • Contest will run until March 15, 2010 – all submissions must be in by then
  • I will pick the winning entries according to how well thought out your plan is, detail and thoroughness, creativity, etc.
  • All submissions become the property of 20smoney.com and may be posted on the website
  • If you have a blog, I will include a single link to your blog if your entry is posted – be sure to let me know your blog URL

Contest Prizes

  • 1st Place: $250 cash or American Express gift cards
  • 2nd Place: TBD
  • 3rd Place: TBD

If I receive over 25 quality entries, I will increase the prize pool, so help promote the contest by writing a blog post, tweeting about it, or posting on Facebook about it!

I will probably do a weekly update on the contest as I hash out the prize pool and post quality contributions while the contest is going on.  I will post updates and answers to any questions that I might get regarding the contest.  Good luck!

Popularity: 5% [?]

More on this topic (What's this?)
Interesting Dividend and Investing Sites to Consider
The Math of Retirement; Not Good
Big Retirement Planning Bugaboo
Read more on Personal Budget, Retirement, How To Invest at Wikinvest

Comments (0)

20smoney.com Reader Survey

Administrative

I’m looking to get some feedback from the readers and visitors of this blog.  Please leave a comment or email me at kevin (at) 20smoney (dot) com with your answers to the following questions:

  1. What is your favorite topic that I write about on 20smoney.com?
  2. With regards to investing, do you prefer posts on specific stocks and trades or more general strategy?
  3. Do you like when I include a chart in a post about the markets or a specific stock (yes, no, don’t care)?
  4. Do you like the “Important Reads” posts where I detail some of the most important news items and interesting stories from the day?
  5. Do you read my monthly blog report detailing traffic and income (click here for the December report)?
  6. Do you get tired of my economic pessimism or appreciate me speaking to reality?
  7. Do you ever check out the pages such as Major Trends, Personal Finance Manifesto or Toilet Reading?  Any feedback on them?
  8. Are you an RSS susbcriber or web visitor?
  9. How often do you visit the website?
  10. Do you enjoy reading about working to develop income streams?
  11. Do you enjoy reading about the intersection of politics and finance?
  12. What would you like to read more about?
  13. What do you like the most about 20smoney.com?
  14. What do you like the least about 20smoney.com?
  15. Any other general comments or feedback

Please take 30 seconds and answer the above questions!  I will listen to your feedback!  RSS Readers, please email me or come to the website and leave a comment.  Thank you so much!

Popularity: 4% [?]

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Market Going Lower, Getting Easier To Short

Market Analysis Trading

Finally some tailwinds to my shorting plays versus the headwinds of just about all of 2009.  After breaking north of 10,700 last week, the Dow Jones is now very close to the 10k mark.  Insignificant, but definitely a psychological level.

Good article over at Seeking Alpha about “shorting the double dip” says the following:

What to do? Short the obvious – a continuing fall in national income – start looking at logical shorts based on fundamentals and then check out technicals for the “when.” An important part of those fundamentals are balance sheets. As sales stay stagnant or continue to decline, debt service will increase – if debt can be re-financed – as rates rise. Who needs a boat? Short Brunswick (BC), decent balance sheet, not great. Who needs a high end motorcycle? Short Harley (HOG), totally wrecked balance sheet. Who needs more stuff? Short Macys (M), woeful balance sheet.

The author’s point on using technicals for the “when” is what I failed to do in 2009.  The technicals were bullish and are only now starting to become negative for many stocks.

I have attempted to short Brunswick and Macy’s both last year and this year.  I’m now finally adding to these shorts.

Popularity: 4% [?]

More on this topic (What's this?)
The Dow Jones Recovers Heavy Losess
DJIA Daily Trading Model
Read more on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) at Wikinvest

Comments (0)

Buying Low: Purchasing Items That Are Out-Of-Season Or Out-Of-Style

Lifestyle Money Management

We could all afford to buy less stuff, that’s a given.  But, what about the things that can be potential assets to you and your family?  The key is to buy these things when they’re completely out of season or when there is very light demand for such products.  Not only can you get great deals but you can also find plenty of people selling perfectly good products for dirt cheap prices through places like Craigslist.

Recently, I’ve gotten into preparation / safety mode and I’ve decided that a generator is a great thing to own.  I live in Florida and we get hit by hurricanes rather frequently.  Loss of power is both a very real threat to Floridians, but also something that can be prepared for by owning a generator.  The problem is that when people see a hurricane coming to the area/region, everybody does out to buy a generator.  Stores usually sell out and sometimes jack up the prices to make a few extra bucks.  This is the wrong time to buy one.

We haven’t been hit by a hurricane in a few years, and also, people need cash these days.  The result is a huge selection of generations that have hardly been used for deals like 80% retail.  Beautiful.  I’m currently in the process of shopping several options through Craigslist.

This is a great way to acquire long-term, durable items that can be expensive but are also things that can last you decades.  The key is to buy low and then take excellent care of them.

To sum up the point here, a wise money management strategy is to allocate as few of your dollars as necessary to quality items that will provide value for many years.  You can make a list of items that fall into this description and a list of items that do not.  For example, the latest gadget that will either break or be obsolete yet commands a premium right now is not in the list.

Popularity: 6% [?]

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Guest Post: Maintain Good Credit Before A Home Purchase

Debt Money Management

This is a guest post from Silicon Valley Blogger of The Digerati Life. The Digerati Life is a site that covers topics on investing, saving and money management. Check out the site’s coverage of OptionsHouse and their review of Zecco, for a taste. But the topic for the day is how to manage your credit after experiencing foreclosure. If you’re interested in providing a guest post, please click here for more information.

We, homeowners, have gone through quite a drubbing during this latest real estate market downturn. The disruptions in this market brought about by the subprime mortgage meltdown haven’t yet dissipated. A number of surveys show that the housing market is recovering at a very slow pace, and lending operations have not yet returned to normal.

From what I’ve noticed, mortgage lenders are still strict about their lending guidelines. If you don’t have an excellent credit score, you can expect your chances for obtaining credit to become much lower, when you try to qualify for a mortgage. Many borrowers are resorting to quick and dirty credit repair programs since lenders have become a lot stricter about approving a mortgage after foreclosure. This is a tough matter to accept for many would-be homeowners, given how easy it used to be to get a personal loan or mortgage in the past. Now after the credit crunch, the American dream of owning a home is becoming much more elusive. But we can reverse these trends if we work on improving our financial health — possibly by getting our credit in tip top shape so that we can become the kind of customers that lenders would love to have (and whose business they’d love to compete for).

So what are some financial strategies we can undertake in order to help us secure better credit? Are there ways to restore our credit so that we can qualify for a mortgage in a time of tighter credit? Here are some ideas!

1) Stay current with your payments.
Stay up to date with your utility bills, credit cards, store cards, medical bills and so on. When you’re making regular and timely payments, these should eventually appear on your credit report as positive marks. When you manage your payments well and attend to your bills responsibly, lenders will realize that you are sincere about your efforts to repay your debt. You should also check your credit score and credit report periodically to see whether there are any discrepancies.

2) Organize and simplify your finances.
Get your finances in order by consolidating your accounts and automating your savings and spending programs. I would suggest investing some money in a budgeting application. There are free sites like Mint.com that can be helpful. Desktop tools like “You Need A Budget” are great too. You can check out our YNAB review for more information on this. With the use of these tools, you can formulate a sensible budget which you should then try to stick with as best as you can. As you work to repair any damaged credit, this will turn out to be a significant step.

3) Save money!
If you intend to buy a house in the near future, you’ll need to get started on your savings right away! Work on building a substantial down payment — the larger this is, the cheaper your loan. When you have the ability to make a large down payment, you’re more likely to receive viable terms on your loan.

4) Monitor the mortgage market rates.
As you work on improving your credit, keep tabs on the existing mortgage market rates. Despite the fact that studies indicate that the real estate market is showing signs of improvement, we still need to keep our eye on property values and loan rates. Why? Because a specific optimistic change in the markets must survive for several months so that it can be proven as a trend. The housing market is currently a buyer’s market, and so at this time, the rates are quite attractive for borrowers. Therefore, if you’re ready to become a homeowner, and you’re approved for a loan or have some money with you, then don’t waste time. Start the home buying procedure right away! Who knows how long mortgage rates can remain so low?

5) Boost your credit score.
Your credit record will speak for yourself if you are disciplined about keeping up with your bill payments. As was mentioned earlier, avoid late or missed payments and you’ll be on your way to a healthier credit score. There are other things you can also do to boost your credit, such as: avoiding hitting and going beyond your credit limit and maintaining a good mix of installment loans to your name.

For those who have suffered a home loss due to foreclosure, don’t lose hope! You still have the opportunity to take out a mortgage after foreclosure even during these lean times. But you’ll need to do what you can to restore your credit prior to making any moves towards financing. Taking care of your finances before making any big purchase will ensure that you get a better deal on any loan that you decide to take out in the future.

Popularity: 6% [?]

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