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Money Magazine Poll: 73% Say Dow Will Be Higher At End of 2010

2 January 2010 5 Comments

73% think stocks are going up.  I’m not going to comment about what I think, but I’m going to comment that this is a risky place for stocks with such a “bullish consensus”.  If you want to remain in stocks and even are continuing to buy stocks, I would recommend having one eye on the exit.  Or, perhaps transition towards more defensive stocks with dividends to protect on a potential correction.  Or, buy some covered calls on your positions.  Or, maybe sell off some of your most profitable positions.

If you go back to March 2009 and took the same poll, I wonder what the “consensus” was?  Probably the opposite?  Take it for what it’s worth.

Of course, this assumes that the invisible hand of Ben Bernanke and our other fearless leaders would actually allow a correction.  But I digress…


  • jacob@ERE said:

    Ha! Yeah, that probably means that stocks will be down presuming they already bought on their convictions and that there are only 27% left to buy and drive the price higher.

  • 20smoney (author) said:

    Yes, 2010 will be very interesting. The easy money has been made and if the recovery doesn't materialize or isn't sustainable without government support, look out below. I'm writing calls on my core positions…

    Also, waiting for the trend to become clear. I got killed on the short side in '09 but I'm eager to jump back in on that end when the time is right 🙂

  • Chris said:

    Not really sure I want to jump in on the long side when the sentiment is 73% bullish. That, and I've been seeing a lot of bullish headlines all over the interweb lately. I will wait patiently for a correction…