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Preview Of Tomorrow’s (Un)Employment Report

1 April 2010 No Comment

Tomorrow will likely bring the first job “growth” that we’ve seen in some time.  According to the CNBC article over at Yahoo, you will have to look into the details to see the truth behind the headline number.

The consensus forecast, based on surveys of economists taken at the end of last week, is for a 200,000 jobs gain in March. The economy shed 36,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 9.7 percent.

As we’ve seen before, the official unemployment percentage doesn’t always move how we’d expect based on jobs lost or gained.  This is because the number doesn’t factor in workers who no longer are searching for employment.  Yes, I agree that that is dumb.

The article adds,

To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 150,000 jobs a month to accommodate adult population growth, reentry of discouraged workers and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including the latter two groups, unemployment is closer to 20 percent than the 9.7 percent headline figure

Lastly, a big portion of the additions will come from Census hirings.  Remember, we’re hiring over a million more Census workers in 2010 than we did in 2000.  Of course, this has nothing to do with high unemployment.

I’ll be on the golf course in the morning, but will be checking out the economic data via my trusty iPhone.  Happy Good Friday!

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