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The Trend Is Still Down

16 July 2010 No Comment

Despite several days in a row with a nice bounce off the lows in early July, the trend is still down.  The “death cross” is still in effect (where the 50 day moving average crossed the 200).  spx

 

Today, the catalyst is the consumer confidence number which came in lower than expected.  The economic data as I’ve expected now for some time is definitely rolling over.  Even the Fed is now predicting that the recovery will take 5-6 years – some cold water on those out there who say “the economy will come back… it has to” – actually it doesn’t.  And, how about housing? How many people do you know that say “real estate will come back… it has to” — again, no it doesn’t.

The economic data will continue to deteriorate.  The economy is stuck.  For the near term, I think stocks will continue to reflect this reality… until our saviours at the Federal Reserve will “fix” things again after the election?

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