Random Thoughts On The Economy & Markets
31 August 2010 4 Comments
This is probably only for those of you that follow the economy, the Fed, and the markets. I haven’t thought through much of these but this is more me just thinking out loud here…
- Everyone knows we have a bond bubble. The question is when does it peak? Shorting bubbles is very tough. Here is one guy who thinks it might be that time.
- The counter argument is that the Fed will never allow a Treasury sell-off because they will just monetize and basically put a floor under them. It will be interesting to see if there’s a sell-off even while the Fed monetizes? Or will a sell-off be what forces a massive round of QE? What a terrible equation.
- The economic data is terrible – will the markets reflect this at any point? Yes, I know the markets are down from April highs, but will the markets head towards the March ’09 lows?
- Will retail investors continue to abandon stocks? I see more and more baby boomers saying “to hell with stocks” as they pull back and prepare for retirement & retrenchment. The terrible thought is if baby boomers get wiped out by a bond bust.
- Does any of this sound stable to you? If not, what does sound stable? Maybe gold? How many of you have a hard time pulling the trigger on $1250 gold (gold coins will probably run you $1300+)?
- How many people that actually have money are a train wreck trying to determine where to put it?
- Does anybody have any money anymore?
- Confidence is still moving lower I think – which, in turn will probably still push gold higher.
Any reactions to any of this? Let me know.