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Economy, Market Analysis, Quick Hits »

The US markets have enjoyed a nice run in the last month (nominally speaking of course – since they are in the red if you price them in gold).  The Dow closed above 11,000 last week for the first time since May.  It’s amazing how the market action determines how most people feel about the economy.  Back in August, thing “felt” much worse.  People were convinced we were heading for a double-dip because the market was acting like it.  Now, we get news of QE2, the market goes up, and …

Market Analysis, Quick Hits »

Say that five times fast!  Stocks surge to start September.  Stocks surge to start September.  Ok, nevermind.  Dow jumped 254 points today to get everyone really, really excited!  Who cares about the month of August being down.  Traders are so funny – or maybe it’s just the clowns on CNBC – one huge day and you’d think that no problems existed in the economy!  Up and down.  Gotta be long / short these days I think.
Everyone wants to know will stocks have a big September? Does this start mean good …

Market Analysis, Quick Hits »

Stocks are down big to start the session today with the Dow off over 100 points.  The pessimism regarding the overall economy is building.  Housing data comes out here at 10am, so that could also be a catalyst.  If the sentiment gets progressively more negative that is exactly the recipe for a massive quantitative easing announcement in the future; although, I’m still doubtful that it will happen before the November elections.  Oh, wait, nevermind, the Fed is politically independent.

Gold, Market Analysis »

Thoughts On The Markets & Where We’re Going Here…

Ok, the market had a big down day today.  I’ve been saying that for stocks to rally, the Fed needed to drop a nuclear bomb on the economy and really open up the printing press engine.  They opened it up but only a little bit.  As such, the markets tanked today.  Ok, we got that.  What next.
If the market moves to correct here which is a very real possibility, we need to know what to do with it.
First, you should have some of your long portfolio hedged.  I own a …

Market Analysis »

[11 Aug 2010 | Comments Off on Markets Down Early | ]
Markets Down Early

As I guessed yesterday, I “sold the news” and actually added some UltraShort S&P ETF (SDS) in an attempt to hedge against my long positions now that the Fed action was clear.  As I mentioned, the QE was not really a “shock and awe” of which the markets seem to be requiring more and more, so when the action is only a small step, it isn’t enough.  Today we saw that come to fruition with the markets opened about 200 points down on the Dow.
Furthermore, we have a fairly interesting …

Market Analysis »

Stocks Are Showing Strength

At least for the near future, stocks look strong.  Check out some of the breakouts going on – Simon Property Group (SPG) and Amazon.com (AMZN).
Simon Property Group (SPG) Chart
Amazon.com (AMZN) Chart
Now, Transocean (RIG) is a different stock from the high-flying stocks like Amazon.com (AMZN) and Simon Property Group (SPG), but the action is interesting nonetheless.  If RIG can get above the $55 level, we might see significant upside.
Transocean (RIG) Chart
For now, the trend looks to be up.  A couple questions I have:

Is QE2 priced into the market?
What kind of jobs …

Economy, Market Analysis »

[16 Jul 2010 | Comments Off on The Trend Is Still Down | ]
The Trend Is Still Down

Despite several days in a row with a nice bounce off the lows in early July, the trend is still down.  The “death cross” is still in effect (where the 50 day moving average crossed the 200). 
Today, the catalyst is the consumer confidence number which came in lower than expected.  The economic data as I’ve expected now for some time is definitely rolling over.  Even the Fed is now predicting that the recovery will take 5-6 years – some cold water on those out there who say “the economy …